I somewhat agree with you on a disappointment in the share price. I have found myself to be very successful in investing but very unsuccessful in judging short term market movement. From my experiences I have found the market to make somewhat drastic short term movements without any warning. I have dabbled in tech analysis, but with no success. I feel the best strategy is the buy and hold for 3+ years cause I cannot judge short term, but also cause of tax strategy. I think that if you sell a stock thinking in the short term it might not do anything, but in the long term it will be great you might be in for some trouble. For example, if you sell in the 3.40 – 3.50 range in hopes of buying in the 3 area you might miss out when it breaks the 3.50 range to get up around 4. Then you’ve got those thoughts going through your head if you should buy or not. All along you knew this was a good stock and knew it would be higher.
I have just found the market to move slow and then change to be fast. Think I’ve seen some studies supporting this, but can’t remember where. I wish you the best of luck and hope you have better market timing than I have had in the past. I don’t think you need to have good or even decent market timing if you pick the right stocks and hold it out till the market recognizes the good stocks. Warren b talked a lot about mr. Market. This is the way I tell the mr. Market story to my wife, sure I’m butchering it, but it makes sense to her so I’ve got to be telling it right;) You own a butcher shop that makes money. Mr. Market lives down the street and is manic-depressive. Every day he comes by your shop and wants to buy your butcher shop. On days he feels great he offers an exurbanite amount of money saying your shop is the greatest. On days he feels rotten he offers you next to nothing saying your shop is worth nothing. All along your shop makes pretty much the same amount of money and has the same prospects. How can the value of your shop vary so much from day to day? Because mr. Market is a crazy s.o.b!
Buffet fans please add or refute what you like but that is the way I see things and that is what makes sense to me. If I had to guess why we don’t have the run up in price I would say… There have been large share price increases in the past 2 years. Many long long term shareholders have been cashing out cause they need their money for other things (profit taking). Also, I don’t think Australians fully understand how large this market is and what stage it is in and are afraid of ohio.
While I don’t believe in tech analysis as an investing technique, I do think there is something to it on some level. I think the long term share holders from many years back that are wanting to profit take are done. The price has been here for long enough for those shares to pass. I think more Australians will buy as the ohio situation passes and they become more familiar with how large the market is. I have no doubt the ohio situation will not be a situation soon, not immediately soon, but soon. I think more Americans will invest in the adr program as time passes. I talked to someone at rdf about 6 months ago and said that I think the best advertisement for investing in the company is people getting tickets from rdf. He said, as a way to hedge their speeding? While I agree, but I was referring to people just seeing that this is something that makes sense. It can save lives and increase our productivity by having machines do man’s work. They will then think naturally to invest in this company. For the long, long, long term perspective… I believe there will be a time when people will understand that co-ordinated traffic lights will save people many minutes a day, many hours a month and many days a year. It’s as if we are given more time to live, if you look at waiting at a traffic light as wasted time. Yes, there a companies out there tacking this issue. Yes, there are systems in place. The are horrible. The only system that I have heard good things about is in Minneapolis. Who runs the rlc in Minneapolis? That’s right. So maybe we could eventually get in this business? Ok, maybe not. Lots of talk about who has the best rlc system out. It is very re-assuring that rdf was selected for Minneapolis and that Minneapolis was voted the most high tech city by popular science magazine. Says something good about rdf? You get ya.
Look, this is my 2 cents and I hope you find it useful. I am averaged out at about 3.50 and have absolutely no thought in selling this stock for the next few years. I started buying at 3.90 and averaged down to about 3.50. I have no regret buying at a higher price cause that was the right decision at the time. I have found that the market tends to shake out those that lack confidence in their buys. When things head south I think it’s important to remember why you bought the stock in the first place. If things have changed negative, then consider selling. But, if things have not changed negative and remain the same or better, hold or buy more. I think rdf has improved in my mind over the last 6 months. I think mr. Market is not recognizing the potential. I think if you sell you will regret it, because its just too damn hard to tell when it will take off. I think we all agree they will change their install per month rate upwards and I can’t imagine what more we could possibly want from this company.
This is just my humble opinion and I wish you the best in whatever decision you make. Just keep in mind, rdf just crushed transol and nestor’s about to go under…
RDF Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
