Funding, page-98

Morning BTH.... When I read your post, my first thought was "OMG... I've been spending too much time admiring the tree and didn't see the forrest!". So thanks for expanding, and enhancing, my view.

My thoughts on this scenario? Raising funds for the next stage are not as one dimensional as many think. And I think you've hit upon a very plausible option for how it can be structured.

Funding future stages is something that JZ has had lots of time to consider and formulate, and IMO JZ wants to minimise dilution (obviously!), but probably more importantly (in the long run), protect AGY from external/third-party's creeping in and garnering control/access via board seats and/or major share holding.... At the first shareholder meeting I attended, I was lucky enough after it to hear from JZ first-hand about the experience with Qianyun and JZ's decision to terminate that agreement. The lasting impression it left is that JZ will not be dicked around and won't roll over easily (and won't be quick to give up a board seat again!)

JZ has made it clear for quite some time now that the key to securing funding is to prove the process and produce a quality product. And in some ways, I think this is confusing the wider investor group, because they're used to a "traditional" model along the lines of; grass-root investors, secure tenements, dig/drill etc, produce independent professional assessment of resource (JORC, PEA, etc), then based on MC seek investment to achieve path to production.

But as we all know, AGY have already reached the production stage (all be it small a quantity)... they've got tenements, ponds, feed stock, pilot plant, proven process, and a high quality LCE product before releasing a PEA ... and the necessary expertise (PA) - who isn't just secured via employment, but aligned to the project's long-term success via both being an AGY shareholder - but more importantly, the Puna JV. (Which getting back to your example, if you were PA, would u prefer to have 10% of a $150m project, or 8% of a $500m+ project? So yes, I can see a scenario where the Puna JV is restructured.)

So as I said before, JZ has had a long time to work out, and negotiate, a path to funding... and I don't think it's relying on the current MC to finalise the terms. Rather, I think those terms were agreed when the process and product quality were proven.
(Especially as the falling SP has not been a reflection of AGY's performance, but rather a wider market sentiment, ie AGY's overall falling share price is not due to the company's failure to deliver on their strategic plan. And if the MC was key to the terms, I think JZ would have been doing more to shore it up, such as announce independent LCE testing earlier, doing a lot more promotion, sell some product, announce a Stg 1 OT).

So, using your scenario, it's feasible that the delay in announcing the Stg 1 OT and Stg 3 funding will have more to do with agreeing to and setting up the entities and legal frameworks, etc then finalising the testing of product samples??

Anyway, we shall have to wait and see what unfolds

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I found it a refreshing change from some the trite that's been posted lately.... an intellectual Berroca for the brain .