re: funtastic-be careful - for ac I used a simplified free cash flow model. The primary assumptions were beta of 0.5 (half the all-ords and not a growth beta at all), and earnings figures of 131 (02), 164 (03) - ~25% growth, and 190 (04) - ~17% growth). After 04 they will come back to the industry levels in terms of earnings. Given the industry you cannot assume a competitive advantage lasting longer than 3 years.
To warrant a market price of $1.46 the earnings need to be around $250m for 03 (100%) and growth to match for the years thereafter. I think this scenario is highly unlikely.
The market price will move down to the 1.10 -1.20 range.
re: funtastic-be careful - for ac I used a simplified free cash...
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