furball friday, page-11

What's the chance of a bull market starting now?

Very remote.

Coventional wisdom says it is unlikely before probably year "2" in a decade approx.

Looking at the Dow from 1910, confirms that there are many last gasp rallies from an "8" year into the "9" and sometimes "0" year, some of which make new highs but not when we have seen a drop as big as this.

There are two exceptions.

A bull market did start in mid 1949.

For the Dow a new bull did start from the 1987 crash. However here we stayed in a bear market till Nov 1992.