I agree that 2025 should be seen as a ramping year, and that we should be happy to break even, but for FY 2026, our DFS indicates that AISC (with the Tantulum credit applied) should be U$452. Even if we say that is far too optimistic, and use U$600/dmt as the AISC, at a realized price of U$1,500/dmt, with production at 511 ktpa, FY26 yields revenues of U$766.5M and an operating profit of U$456M (455.9M, to be precise). That works-out to A$690M (689.85M), or pretty much enough to pay-off ALL debts.
By FY27, even if we maintain the realized price of only U$1,500/dmt, that same operating profit of A$690M, spread across 2.4B shares, yields EPS of almost A$0.29 (28.8 cents). Assuming a dividend payout rate of 30%, which is average for the industry, that would be a dividend of A$0.086 per share.
Truth be told, with the typical hiccups associated with ramp-up and a few surprises to be expected along the way, I would expect slightly less than that, but I still expect a dividend for FY27 in the A$0.05 range, and that is assuming the conservative SC6 price of U$1,500/dmt and LTR "only" producing SC6 (since all indications are that we are to be producing SC6.3).
Best regards, and have a nice day!
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Mkt cap ! $1.624B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
70.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 67.0¢ | $10.52M | 15.42M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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14 | 385809 | 66.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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67.5¢ | 116000 | 4 |
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15 | 352887 | 0.660 |
7 | 350683 | 0.655 |
29 | 258917 | 0.650 |
3 | 71550 | 0.645 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.675 | 116000 | 4 |
0.680 | 300978 | 6 |
0.685 | 128059 | 3 |
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0.695 | 20000 | 1 |
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