LTR 6.29% 67.0¢ liontown resources limited

I agree that 2025 should be seen as a ramping year, and that we...

  1. 446 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1987
    I agree that 2025 should be seen as a ramping year, and that we should be happy to break even, but for FY 2026, our DFS indicates that AISC (with the Tantulum credit applied) should be U$452. Even if we say that is far too optimistic, and use U$600/dmt as the AISC, at a realized price of U$1,500/dmt, with production at 511 ktpa, FY26 yields revenues of U$766.5M and an operating profit of U$456M (455.9M, to be precise). That works-out to A$690M (689.85M), or pretty much enough to pay-off ALL debts.

    By FY27, even if we maintain the realized price of only U$1,500/dmt, that same operating profit of A$690M, spread across 2.4B shares, yields EPS of almost A$0.29 (28.8 cents). Assuming a dividend payout rate of 30%, which is average for the industry, that would be a dividend of A$0.086 per share.

    Truth be told, with the typical hiccups associated with ramp-up and a few surprises to be expected along the way, I would expect slightly less than that, but I still expect a dividend for FY27 in the A$0.05 range, and that is assuming the conservative SC6 price of U$1,500/dmt and LTR "only" producing SC6 (since all indications are that we are to be producing SC6.3).

    Best regards, and have a nice day!
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add LTR (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
67.0¢
Change
-0.045(6.29%)
Mkt cap ! $1.624B
Open High Low Value Volume
70.0¢ 71.0¢ 67.0¢ $10.52M 15.42M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
14 385809 66.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
67.5¢ 116000 4
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 13/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
LTR (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.