future dividends

From this

The Board of Directors announced an interim dividend of 9.5 cents per share fully
franked, with a record date of 3 January 2014 and payable on 24 January 2014. This
dividend represents a payout ratio of 70.4% of underlying EPS from continuing
operations.

•
Underlying earnings per share of 13.5 cents per share
•
Interim dividend per share of 9.5 cents fully franked


OK please keep the above in mind.

This is from the yearly released in June

Metcash delivered a strong dividend payout ratio paying 86% of underlying Earnings Per
Share.
The final dividend of 16.5 cents per share takes the ful
l year dividend to 28 cents per
share, fully franked.


I'm thinking they they have a new payout ratio of 70%
and they are predicting a fall in EPS in the high single digits (lets guess 9%)

So...

32.6 (last years EPS) subtract 9percent (predicted contraction) = 29.6 cents per share.

29.6 x 70% (New payout ratio)

= 20.7 cps dividend fully franked
i.e 20.7 / .7 = 29.57 cents per share

This is almost a 10 percent return at these share prices.

Could someone please comment or correct my calcuations.

I'm only guessing here