ITIW - don't forget the tariffs the Anti- Dumping Commission has...

ITIW - don't forget the tariffs the Anti- Dumping Commission has put in place for steel since April. That should increase EBIT from steel by another 15% as Arrium can increase its prices. So I reckon steel would do around $A260 to $275 million. assumingviron ore averages US$50 per tonne, iron ore should do around A$90 million EBIT with new breakeven price of around US$38 per tonne plus increase in iron ore grade (after deducting capital expenditure of A$55 million per year for further exploration and development). So if rest of Arrium has around say $800 million in gross debt after selling off Molycop and it earns say $345 million EBIT per year on these numbers, it should be back on the market and returned to the shareholders. Then it may well be a takeover target for a big player (Bluescope or Posco). Remember there are A$2 Billion in tax losses to carry forward. So no company yax to pay for around 6 years. The A$800 million in debt (plus interest) could be repaid during that time period if the banks were reasonable enough.