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supertramp

11,724 Posts.

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30/06/14

18:11

Post #: 13590756
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Originally posted by Roger10 ↑

Thanks Iva for the link.

We should also note that ACL made a forecast when they started the Phase 3 trial that this would finish in Jan 2014. This timing indication was based on what data they have which included that HA-I would have extended the lives of people. Five months later and the trial is still running. It is actually 5 months longer than what they have forecasted. If we are looking at 415 patients then around 15 percent have already beaten the PFS of at least 5 months. Of course we will not know what percentage are on HA-I

If under the radar report says 5 months PFS is standard, we can say Jan 2014 trial end date should be 5 months + 6 weeks PFS. If you add the extended 5 months trial, we are potentially looking at an extra 12 months PFS for at least 15 percent left in that trial.

So you ask yourself, can Folfiri PFS beat 12 months and how many percentage would have gone that far.

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"We should also note that ACL made a forecast when they started the Phase 3 trial that this would finish in Jan 2014"

ACL were actually expecting completion earlier. When they modelled the blinded data that was available in early 2013, they altered there forecast to early 2014.

ACL Price at posting: 55.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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