Future of Alchemia, page-53

Tewk it is not hard to see why. UTTR assumes that price competition for Fonda generics reduces ACL's profit share by 50% over the next couple of years before flat lining. That will provide a very different valuation to assuming that the profit share remains at the current level indefinitely (or increases slightly). Which outcome is more probable?

Maybe it is somewhere in the middle, but it would be a bit foolish to assume a rosy picture based on past performance of Fonda, and by Dr Reddys and our profit share arrangement with them.

It really is a binary outcome for the phase III trial result. An adverse outcome wouldn't put HyAct out of the future upside picture completely, but to fund a comeback would be extremely costly at a very low share price (a CR would be inevitable under that scenario). Of course, we are all anticipating a much more favourable outcome and that would set us up for a very good future over the next few years. My biggest fear under a positive pIII scenario is that a big pharma company makes an opportunistic bid for the entire company that seriously undervalues future potential (but would likely be accepted by many for a quick profit).