Future of energy, page-13

Pioneers take the arrows. A saying I believe applies to renewables.

I see no changes to the industry/mega-corporation dynamic you refer to, only that the energy source utilised over time will become ‘cleaner’. See mining companies like Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals deploying on-site solar/renewables to hit their B-Corp targets.

Oil will phase itself out eventually, however, last year saw 14k electric and hybrid sales comparative to around 385k petrol. A long way away, indeed.

First Solar is a utility of the future. They manufacture panels, have an impressive global pipeline, offer recycling services to the entire industry (lucrative, by all accounts) and have 3800MW+ in operation. Yet, they pale in size to an Exxon. First Solar could leverage their business structure by collecting strugglers who’ve ‘taken the arrows’ and amass quite a portfolio. Windlab, for example. What a nightmare run they’ve had with Kennedy Park GPS, a 2017 QLD flagship project still offline. Alternatively, the many solar developments stuck in development limbo in NSW who are facing up to 7-year wait to receive approval to connect to the grid. These are smart, easy pickings for long term energy players who aren’t just buying the project but the freehold, and therefore, a piece of the energy market that deters competition.

The Origin’s and AGL’s are continuing their renewable moves, generating more and more renewables within their portfolios. They can set 2050 targets to keep the shareholders happy and choose among the horses who’ve won.

I see politics as a continued major driver in the technologies that see market, so it’d be a fool to rush in now. The ideological battle between accepting anthropogenic climate change and delaying action long enough hoping for an ‘I told you so moment’. Hydrogen? Pumped hydro? Riverine hydro? Nuclear? More coal? Or are we fond of the rapidly deployed, low CAPEX solar and wind options with batteries, where possible?

I can’t see Infigen becoming an Origin or AGL organically. Like Ash, I see the benefits in new kit or acquisitions, or that in being acquired by a major, or a likeminded Tilt, First Solar, Genex to build a clean energy armada. How this unfolds will be most intriguing.