I disagree that any and all progress away from coal is positive. If it's not handled appropriately, then the significant ramping at sunrise, sunset and when weather events pass over can create significant downside.
If we build enough OCGT to cope with the change in demand during these times (and fast response battery to maintain grid stability during their ramp rate), then how much extra embedded CO2 have we expelled in the manufacture of these turbines? How long do we rely on these turbines in order to get bang for buck (bang for CO2)? Who is going to pay for them if storage technologies are pushed through in the preceding decade or two?
If we try to build enough storage to cope with the nighttime/stormtime, then who is going to pay for it at the half way mark (or less) when the coal plants are forced to their minimum operating limit (and spitting out power at $0 or less just to avoid shutting off a boiler).
I see great financial risk in the energy transition once storage or VRE hits a certain percentage of market share. Firming assets, a strong balance sheet, contracted customers and a willingness to withhold VRE supply will be whats required in the coming decades. The withholding of VRE supply may not sound productive, but there'll come a point where it's required to keep the price propped up, especially once the storages are at or near saturation (just like what OPEC+ keep trying to do with oil, but at a 5 minute time scale rather than month by month).
Future of energy, page-54
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