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I read this report on the weekend. I guess it basically tells us...

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    I read this report on the weekend. I guess it basically tells us what most of us here already know. I have copied and pasted this for those who may not have already read this type of forecast for 2023.. For those who haven't it's worth a read.

    What is the graphite supply and demand forecast for 2023?
    As 2023 begins, graphite and other key battery metals are positioned to benefit
    from the rise of the EV sector.
    The EV industry has been growing over the past two years, with global sales
    surpassing the 6 million mark in 2021. There is still major upside moving forward,
    and many forecasts point to a strong market in the coming years as carmakers
    continue to commit to the electrification of their fleets and governments push
    towards a green energy transition.
    When compared to lithium or nickel, graphite is been overlooked, in part because
    its industrial uses have always been the main driver for demand — but that might
    be about to change.
    “We're now projecting that by the end of next year, batteries will be the number
    one leading market for graphite,” Miller said during a keynote presentation at
    Benchmark Week. “So this is a turning point for the industry.”

    In order to meet this unprecedented demand, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
    estimates that up to 150 new operations across natural and synthetic graphite are
    needed by 2035.
    “The volume, the rate at which the graphite market has been growing, has
    particularly accelerated over the last couple of years,” Caspar Rawles, chief data
    officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told INN. “We've seen growth rates in
    2021 and 2022 at around 40 percent year-over-year.”

    “Graphite is the largest component by weight, compared to any other battery raw
    material that goes in a battery ... so each gigawatt hour or megawatt hour of
    capacity that's deployed has a big impact on graphite,” Rawles said. “And to some
    extent, while we have seen some investment in new graphite production capacity, it
    has not been adequate.”

    Money needs to start coming urgently now to address the future issues that the
    industry is facing, as bringing new mines online is not an easy task. “The issue in the
    extraction is the timeframe to bring that new raw materials to market,” Miller said.
    “So when we talk about getting fresh, new raw material out of the ground, the
    industry needs to start developing those operations today to meet that potential
    deficit of 2027, 2028," he added.
    Despite talks about new technology breakthroughs, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
    is forecasting that natural and synthetic graphite anodes will continue to capture
    the majority of market share up until 2040.
    “We really believe that graphite-dominant anodes will continue to capture the
    majority of market share due to established processing and production
    technologies at present, meaning automakers have qualified these chemistries into
    their supply chains,” explained George Miller, senior analyst at Benchmark Mineral
    Intelligence.
    “And this is really combined with favorable cost stability and performance of
    battery-based anodes.”
    Within graphite-based anodes there will be room for both natural and synthetic
    graphite, but experts agree that the tide will turn in favor of natural graphite.
    “Although there is currently greater global demand for synthetic anodes, demand
    for natural anodes is predicted to overtake synthetic this decade,” Miller said.
    By 2030, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is forecasting that natural graphite anode
    material supply will grow by 95 percent, with demand increasing by 450 percent in
    the same time period.
    Fastmarkets is also expecting both natural and synthetic graphite to be used widely
    over time.
    “However, we are expecting to see rising natural graphite consumption increase to
    reflect the cost advantage of using natural graphite, as well as at the same time
    overcoming some of the ESG considerations,” Bennett commented.

    All in all, the firm is calling for the natural graphite market to remain largely in
    deficit until 2025, with the outlook being dependent on increased graphite
    production, primarily in China and Mozambique.
    “The addition of new capacity has already faced significant delays, however, and we
    expect continued struggles for many new entrants, with an appreciable influx of
    new supply not expected to hit the market — and to remedy the growing
    underlying supply/demand imbalance — before 2025,” Bennett said.
    Fastmarkets expects to see an increasingly dynamic graphite market in 2023, with
    notably higher prices next year. “This will reflect both incredible underlying market
    demand and higher costs associated with graphite production,” she added.
 
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