FUTURE POTENTIAL V3, page-591

The news from the last two days is gaining momentum and many are taking the seriousness of the situation. So what could China achieve with this, since it ultimately also primarily affects their exports?

Game Theory:

As already mentioned, Japan took the first hit and China will continue to be very keen to slow down their progress with SolidState in order to be able to catch up themselves, as it is the only innovation that can really pose a threat to them as battery pioneers. As the new Fastmarkets article shows, the states have an even bigger problem (2nd hit).



https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/chinas-graphite-exports-plunge-in-december-after-introduction-of-export-controls/

However, thanks to the steps that have already been taken (including with Canada), a solution should be found relatively quickly.

Europe... well here it looks rather modest...
The years of neglect regarding CRM will now have a full effect (3rd hit). The dependence on China will come to the fore, as the development of their own supply chain has been postponed for too long, as they have not been taken the whole plot serious enough. The alternative via South Korean companies such as LG or Samsung only helps to a limited extent, as they are also largely cut off at the moment, or are themselves dependent on the synthetic graphite from the Chinese(4th hit). This should not only drive up the price of Graphite (which is what chinese miners will be happy to see after their winter break) but at the same time ensures that Chinese manufacturers like CATL, BYD or Gotion can continue to mass-produce batteries while everyone else has to accept their price and China's goodwill (5th hit). European car manufacturers in particular will be unable to counteract these delays and a likely price war, and their market position for EVs will become much much smaller compared to China, especially in Germany. (6th hit)

It probably won't come to an early Knockout , but the resulting “awakening” could well lead to the EIB/EBRD even spending 300M to build a CSPG factory in Ukraine, the Americans will probably plead their national security and all xChina Natural Graphite producers are covered in money due to the LCA/ESG and IRA guidelines...

What does this all mean for Volt?

First of all, PC's negotiating position today should have improved enormously, since the deal with AETC is in place and they are still one of only 3 CSPG manufacturers in the US (and that won't change any time soon imo )

Secondly, 24M will probably be one of the few really serious competitors against the Chinese in terms of solid State Batteries and here too the direction has already been set and the pace for an binding offtake agreement and a scaled production should now accelerate.

And the EU? Well, they have already proven they have a keen interest in ZG via the Gr4fite3 Project and I think that further money will flow here too.

And last but not least, voices will now getting louder again to see a spot price for graphite that not only stands out from the Chinese, but also gives new investors a better risk assessment.


As I said, this is my personal view of current things, so let's see where the whole story develops





Fun Fact: Today's symposium was changed to free entry (Probably even due to lack of interest. I guess that should change now LOL)





Ch33rs