With this latest announcement as motivation it feels like it has been a while since this stock’s future share price / value has been discussed.
My short take in the CR was firstly negative but now looking at the positives there might (MIGHT) be some real opportunities coming up. CRs in junior miners for LTHers almost always sucks when it just feels like dirty share price manipulation to build the price up just to get knocked down again with more dilution. Looking at the positives though is at least there’s an opportunity for us holders to invest again over instos (regardless of the opinion that instos wouldn’t have invested). As it’s been noted it’s announced 7-8 weeks out from AGM which is only a minor aspect really given potential news flow due anyway. The main one for me is the free option if you take up your purchase. The company surely must think that the SP is going north of 18c in the next 12 months for it to be even considered a bonus/benefit. Then that’s well and truly greater than 10c.
So with the main obstacles/milestones finally expected over the next 3-6 months what can we expect in SP movement given the stock has been performing poorly for a number of years getting hammered by lengthy delays and multiple CRs. Btw I’m not suggesting that isn’t normal or necessary in juniors however no one can deny the frustration this company has left with the vague communication and disappointing milestone achievements (delays).
I have tried to predict the projects milestone dates for some context:
Final off take - 2020 imminent
Darwin EIS - Early 2021
FEED - late 2020 / early 2021
FID - Q2 2021
Mt Peake earthworks/camp (possible prior to full finance pending how much cash is left) - Q2 2021
Finance - Q2 2021
Construction - Q3 2021
Production - Q4 2022 / Q1 2023
With such a significant project value (looking at NPV alone without yet crediting the TIVAN potential) surely we can see a market cap of greater than $300m (performance right G) even once we have FEED and permitting approvals (EIS)? That wouldn’t seem unreasonable given the project is significantly derisked with a large amount of money spent to achieve those milestones. The past market / shareholder frustrations would very quickly disappear as the projects true value is recognized more appropriately by the market.
I know the way the project is financed plays a big part of future SP so I am really trying to determine what the next 12 months looks like to assist SHers to make a more educated decison on this share entitlement.
Of course I’m just throwing notes together IMO in an attempt to creat a discussion point. Please feel free to object, challenge and throw in your own thoughts.
Thanks,
Floated
GLTAH
TNG Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
