What value is FAR Oil? IMO & DYOR. Current Value CNE quote a NPV...

What value is FAR Oil?
IMO & DYOR.

Current Value
CNE quote a NPV of $US10 per barrel ($Aus 13.33) at $US70 oil for SNE (at FID 2Q 2019). With the current 5.462B shares issued and the 88M barrels of oil net for Far ( @ holding a 13.7% interest for currently declared 2C recoverable resource of 641M barrels ).
Then in $2018.
So for SNE @ $US10, say a discounted $Aus11.99 x 88M/5.462B = 19.3 cents per share.

Value of Woodside Stake to Woodside
Woodside have been given approval to participate in RSSD, presumably until PE is sorted whence they will either lose their stake through arbitration or be given full right to 35% of the RSSD lease.
The value of the 35% (31.88% after Petrosen takes up their option) to Woodside can be calculated
(0.3188 x 641M) x $US9 = $US1.839B
(0.3188 x 641M) x $Aus 11.99 = $Aus2.450B
Now Woodside paid $US450M for their stake, so as they would have this amount (plus costs) repaid if FAR can uphold arbitration. FAR would also have to repay Woodside s costs of say $US150M.That is total of $US600M.
So Woodside has at least $US1,239M to protect from a successful FAR arbitration, at a $US70 per barrel oil price. More at a higher per barrel oil price.
I expect this amount should focus peter Coleman’s attention. There is a fair arbitrage value to be had here on FAR’s market capitalisation.

Value of Woodside Stake to FAR
The value of the 35% (31.88% after Petrosen takes up their option) to FAR can be calculated, as FAR can be expected to hold 5% and on sell 30% at a discount of 50% (ie $US4.50)
(0.0455 x 641M) x $US9 + (0.2732 x 641M) x $US4.50 = $US1.050B
$US1.050B / 0.75 = $Aus1.4B
Now Woodside paid $US450M for their stake, so as they would have this amount (plus costs) repaid if FAR can uphold arbitration. FAR would also have to repay Woodside costs of say $US150M.That is total of $US600M.
So FAR would realise at least $US450M or $Aus600M from a successful FAR arbitration, at a $US70 per barrel oil price. More at a higher per barrel oil price.
So a successful PE would add $Aus600M/5.462B = 10.9 cents per share, which when added to the 19.3 cents per share equates to 30.2 cents per share.

Value of a successful drill into the Gambia
The value of the 40% stake in The Gambia, assuming $US10 per barrel at FID in 4 years time (equates to $US6.83)
(0.4 x 825M) x $US6.83 = $US2.253B
$US2.253B / 0.75 = $Aus3.004B
So a successful drill in Gambia would add $Aus3,004M/5.462B = 54.9 cents per share, which when added to the 33.9 cents per share equates to 88.8 cents per share.

So in my opinion the drill into the Gambia, if successful, will add significant value to FAR. As OOO said some time back in one of his memorable musings, the taxi fare to join the ride could very soon become expensive.