future traffic growth, page-3

Jukes,

I agree, people's driving habits and desire to drive aren't going to change regardless of their age. But I suspect they will not be making daily commutes via say, Citylink. Logically one would think the vast majority of trips made on Citylink are work related. When the number of workers fall, one would think trips will fall as well.

I also think the GFC is nearly irrelevant in impacting the valuation of toll roads. These things have 30 or 40 year lives, a bad year or two is negligible in that context.

Interesting view re: changing social norms. I've only thought about the situation from a technology perspective. 10 or 15 years from now will we see the elimination of the need for physical presence with certain roles, due to technological progress? I'm reminded of the debacle of CNN's hologram stunt last year, which of course turned out to be special effects, (fascinating to watch nevertheless: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thOxW19vsTg )but the area is developing rapidly. Personally tech changes and social norms are too wobbly for my liking to factor into analysis.

But the statistics don't lie. What I do know is that within the next few years for the first time there are actually more people going out of the work force than coming in. I'm sure we've all read about how future workers will be burdened by a record ratio of retirees: workers. This trend won't change. In fact if we don't keep our shores open to foreign workers the trend will look even more dire. To me that could raise issues for long term growth of the traffic on Citylink, etc.