Futures Iron ore price continues to rise, Feb 26 in Contango!, page-7

And VALE FMG RIO BHP all reduced or cutting production is boosting the IOP higher too.
Vale cutting -7 MTpa
RIO cutting by -15 MTpa
FMG down -6 MTpQ
BHP down -0.3 MTpQ

thats a total of - 28MT so far and counting

yet chinese global steel exports are hitting records up 23.7% in 2024 and already risen 9% this year to May 2025 due to mass demand from the "Global South" (Africa Asia South America),  a trend expected to grow ie "48.47 million metric tons, a 8.9% increase year-over-year" of global steel exports.

LOWER SUPPLY + MORE EXPORTS = IOP UP
Economics 101
but dont bother the shorts about it as they cant read or write so wont know anyway.


https://w w w . m i n i n g . c o m/ w eb/vale-lowers-forecast-for-2025-iron-ore-agglomerates-output/

VALE -
"Brazilian miner Vale on Wednesday lowered its forecast for iron ore agglomerates production in 2025, as the pellet market struggles with oversupply concerns and reduced demand for high-quality products.

The company cut its output outlook to between 31 million and 35 million metric tons, down from a previous range of 38 million to 42 million tons, saying in a securities filing that the decision reflected “current market conditions.”

RIO -
Rio Tinto has recently announced a reduction in its iron ore production due to a combination of factors including weather disruptions and a decline in iron content of its flagship product. Specifically, the company's first-quarter production in the Pilbara region of Australia was the lowest since 2019, impacted by cyclones. Furthermore, Rio Tinto has informed customers that the iron content of its "Pilbara Blend Fines" will be lowered, a move expected to affect pricing.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Reduced First-Quarter Production:
  Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region for the first quarter of 2025 was 70.7 million tons, down from 78 million tons last year and below the market forecast of 73.6 million tons.
  
• Weather Disruptions:
  Tropical cyclones in Australia, particularly the Dampier port disruptions and Cyclone Zelia's impact on Port Hedland, caused significant production losses.
  
• Iron Content Decline:
  Rio Tinto's "Pilbara Blend Fines" will have a reduced iron content, going from 61.6% to 60.8%. This change will be implemented between July and September and will affect the price customers pay for the ore.
  
• Lowered Guidance:
  Due to the first-quarter production shortfall and ongoing weather risks, Rio Tinto is expected to revise its 2025 Pilbara shipment target towards the lower end of its previously stated range of 323-338 million tons.
  
  FMG-
  In Q1 of the 2025 Australian fiscal year (ending March 31, 2025), Fortescue (FMG) saw a 10% decrease in iron ore production compared to the previous quarter, though it was still up 19% year-over-year, according to Shanghai Metals Market. Despite this, FMG maintained its full-year shipment guidance of 190-200 million tonnes. However, the iron ore market is facing headwinds due to increased global supply and reduced demand from China's steel sector, potentially impacting prices, according to the Department of Industry Science and Resources.
  
  Here's a more detailed breakdown:
  • Production:
    FMG's iron ore production reached 55.5 million tonnes in Q1 2025, down from 61.7 million tonnes in the previous quarter (Q4 2024), reports Shanghai Metals Market.
    
  • Shipments:
    Iron ore shipments totaled 46.1 million tonnes in Q1, down 7% from the previous quarter.
    
  • Guidance:
    FMG reaffirmed its full-year shipment guidance of 190-200 million tonnes.
    
  • Market Context:
    Iron ore prices are expected to ease due to increased global supply and reduced demand from China's steel sector, which is experiencing production cuts.
    
    BHP-
    BHP's iron ore production in the first quarter of 2025 remained stable, with 67.8 million tonnes produced, a slight 0.4% decrease year-over-year. However, their iron ore operations in Western Australia (WAIO) demonstrated resilience despite market pressures.
    
    Key Highlights:
    • Stable Production:
      BHP's iron ore output in Q1 2025 was consistent with the previous year, with 67.8 million tonnes produced.
      
      
      Chinese global steel exports BOOMING -
      
      In 2025, China's steel exports are experiencing a mix of trends, with overall exports increasing year-on-year despite some product categories facing anti-dumping measures. While direct steel exports might decrease due to factors like tariffs and increased trade barriers, exports of steel embedded in manufactured goods are also projected to decline. This indicates a broader shift in China's role in the global steel market.
      
      Key Trends and Factors:
      • Overall Export Growth:
        From January to May 2025, China's total steel exports reached 48.47 million metric tons, a 8.9% increase year-over-year, according to Shanghai Metal Market (SMM).
        
      • Anti-Dumping Measures:
        Targeted anti-dumping measures are impacting specific steel product categories, leading to shifts in export patterns.
        
      • Decline in Direct Exports:
        Some forecasts predict a decrease in direct steel exports from China in 2025, potentially due to tariff increases and other trade barriers, according to Discovery Alert. One report suggests a 13.5% reduction compared to 2024 levels.
        
      • Impact on Indirect Exports:
        Exports of steel embedded in manufactured goods (indirect exports) are also expected to decrease.
        
      • Shifting Trade Patterns:
        The changes in Chinese steel exports are leading to a rebalancing of global steel trade, with opportunities emerging for producers in other regions like India, Japan, South Korea, and Europe.
        
      • Prioritizing Exports:
        Weak domestic demand in China is pushing steel mills to prioritize exports to maintain production levels, according to Oil Price.
        
      • Increased Competition:
        Other nations are also increasing their steel production and exports, adding to the competitive landscape.
        
      • Government Stimulus:
        In response to the property slump, China is implementing new stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption, which could impact steel demand.