I have posted on hotcopper for 10 years,just cause the market is bad doesnt mean i wont post, my last trade was arg and mlt last friday when the xao was 4200, its trading not investing.
I dont make predictions on timeframes...only fools do.
Consider a guy is riding his motorbike to work everyday doing 160kph, you know he will crash but to guess what day it will happen is near on impossible but you know the more risk thats taken the greater the consequences.
We have taken a hell of a lot of risk on asset valuations.
Think of an average house and what we are paying for it, what we are actually getting for the work/hours etc involved...realistically they arent worth a fraction of what they are crrently, wait until this unwinds and you will see real pain.
The consumers are the economy.
When the trend changes i will change my stance...technically the markets are in massive downtrends and my gut feeling for whats its worth is things have barely begun to unwind. When unemplyment really rises then things will be felt badly as we get a downward spiral.
my best guess is 2800 is the next target if we get under 3200 and that it will be difficult for the market to rise far beyond 3600 in the short/medium term
DOW Price at posting:
$3.52 Sentiment: LT Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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