Buzz I can’t tell you how bullish I am on this stock. Classic...

Buzz
I can’t tell you how bullish I am on this stock. Classic case or market simply unaware of where Fleetwood is at and where is is going. Put simply we know Rio have underwritten Searipple at 50% utilisation for 3 years commencing this month . We know there is massive demand coming for accommodation including Woodside , Yarra fertilisers, Perdaman ( which is huge ) perdaman alone will have 2000 workers in the building phase and 200 FT beyond that . There is no doubt utilisation will rise to a high rate and it’s possible it may be running at 100% at periods over the medium term. We also know during peak periods searipple generated over 50 m EBIT and rates now will be much higher than 12 years ago.
what we also know is their building solutions business is now profitable with growing margins and growing order book . Let’s say 10m EBITDA for this business medium term and 5 for the RV business . Assume business traded at a 6 times EBITDA that’s 390 m which is 150% upside from here on numbers that I place a high probability.
they also may monetise the RV business and have 25m or surplus land in WA which is significant given 110m EV
Now this is where the story gets really interesting . In from 24/25 they start delivering an NPAT of 25m plus the dividend that we will get grossed up say over years will be about 70% of current SP . So one can envisage on the numbers above a total return of 200% plus . The exciting part is this is based on mid case assumptions and a reasonable non demanding EBiTDA multiple or a PE of 12 -13 well below market multiple of 19 .
add to this net cash and plenty of hard assets .
this is one of the stocks where only a few follow closely to understand how quick the EBITDA and NPAT uplift is coming , and the broader market will catch on as the numbers hit, driving the SP much higher . Like all of these stories the secret is being set before the re rating happens . 1.50 to $3 is 100% but $2.20-3 is only 38% gain . 25c dividend divided by 1.50 is 15% yield whereas 25 dividend divided by 220 is 11%.
the point I am trying to make is it’s important to follow the changes to EBITDA not the SP and get in before the numbers appear in the results and higher dividend is announced . I gather you are already set as I am. Genuinely feeling excited about this stock as well as the impending divi ramp up