Yep, I get that but market cap is inevitably decided by share price?
Share price is decided by what the market decides?
What share holders think (with justifiable reasons DFS & Ganfeng, Li price) the value of the company will be versus what the market wants to pay are two different things, the current share price of FFX tells you that. Potentially 2 seperate $B+ companies and we are currently sitting at half the combined (perceived shareholder) value where we all think it should be, being to suggest that FFX's current share price should be $1.20 - $1.40 (conservatively, given the SP range in reports)
Downside potential, my opinions ~ using 250m SOI @ $2.00 listing price = MC 500m ~ just discussion points?
~ holders that only want FFX gold sell their in-specie shares - also assumes that the same don't subscribe to the Entitlement Offer for example:
I would suggest VanEck Gold fund - will not subscribe to the Entitlement Offer and will divest the Lithium in-specie shares?
~ assuming that VanEck is registered in an eligible country? but their shares are bought through an Australian register?
~ assuming the rest of the LLL shares are going into strong hands for the long term and with a small SOI register, makes the
share illiquid? Would that then be an exclusion criteria from funds to enter? Low liquidity wouldn't suit brokers either, they need the ability to buy/ sell quickly?
IPO implications?
~ price compared to peer companies
~ funds want Lithium stocks, the Friday after market auction trades of many Lithium stocks saw unheralded buying, FFX included, if we overprice ourselves will they look elsewhere for better value?
~ or is it assessing the companies value versus just a share price?
~ would the future growth prospects also be a consideration for the IPO share price
~ another example: we are all in the market to make money, but also look for value/potential growth etc, this may be off the mark but: if FFX IPO thus the Entitlement Offer price is $2.00 and AVZ's current price is $1.00 ~ what share price will give you more value too? Will it will take longer for for FFX to double in price versus AVZ? $30k subscribing to FFX's EO gives me 15,000 shares versus 30,000 AVZ shares, going from $2.00 to $4.00 will be a longer process than going from $1.00 to $2.00, yes? I know it really isn't apples for apples, it is just an example and more aimed at where investors will seek better growth/value. NO need to debate that we are better than them, more advanced etc, both are good prospects for share holder wealth. They will also have more liquidity than LLL will, just some musings.
FFX's 20%: ~ doing my head in: assuming that there will be X amount of shares available (at whatever the ratio is)
~ in-specie distribution - as FFX do not own FFX shares, they won't get any?
~ what happens to in-specie shares that holders of accounts that are not eligible, or would the formula ratio used take that into account?
~ it has me perplexed how FFX as a NON holder of FFX shares gets to retain in-specie shares? I know why they would be doing it, and Red Baron nailed why they have purchased shares in Leo Lithium without having to participate in the Entitlement Offer - which is another "head scratching" prior to the purchase.
~ Entitlement Offer discount?
~ with all the calculations for in-specie shares, we are assuming that the total (deemed) value of the Lithium will be used in the formula to calculate the distribution. Could it be possible, that (using
@Red Baron calculations of 220m in-specie shares) the Company only distribute 110m?
Don't get me wrong, I will happily take my circa 225k in-specie shares based on his calculations of 1 LLL for 5.5 FFX ratio.
After market actions, just something to do with rebalancing?
FFX : 58m of 79m total
AVZ: 170m / 287m
CXO: 65m / 102m
I don't share the enthusiasm with a spate of announcements this week, I still think the licence transfer is the hold up .........
@koparoma Only my opinion, but shares currently in LLL were all previously purchased, FFX (Ultimate Holding Company) subscribed for 1 share @$2.00 when the original Company (Goulamina Holdings Pty Ltd - 16th Dec 2019) was registered, subsequently they subscribed for 4,635,540 shares @$2.00 (15th March 2022) ~ these shares are for the purpose of maintaining the "
up to 20%" holding in Leo Lithium post the in-specie distribution & Entitlement Offer.
What does do my head in ~ suggestions / opinions of FFX holding 20% of in-specie shares, shareholders distributed remaining 80% BUT
FFX do not own shares in itself, making them not eligible for in-specie shares! as above my opinion is they will come to some decision on how many shares they will distribute.
from announcements:
~ "Only Firefinch shareholders will receive an in-specie distribution of shares at no cost in Leo Lithium Limited"
~ "It should be noted that only shareholders holding Firefinch shares at the record date for the Demerger will be entitled to receive an in-specie distribution of Leo Lithium shares."
~ " Firefinch shareholders will also have the right to subscribe for additional shares under a planned entitlement offer prior to ASX listing"
cheers
