fy13 has ended. what will fy14 bring?

  1. DSD
    15,799 Posts.
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    It's Sunday 30/06/13 and marks the end of FY13. For me it's be a disasterous year with my large (for me at least) holdings in MML, SLR and DML being smashed by some 75+% and IMD not much better!! I miscalculated POG completely. I thought the European/Euro economic system would experience at least 3 of its countries going declaring bankruptcy and (despite the US Fed's best efforts) that the world's currencies would be severely disrupted and a flight to gold would ensue. Instead the POG has been smashed to a level where many mines are now barely economic. Will POG recover? I've no idea but will hold the stks i have as i feel they can hardly fall further. (i should have bailed-out months ago when Loki did). But that's now history. Trick is to get FY14 right. I find it hard to be sure about the timing of just about anything but here's my forecast for FY14.

    1) The world's economic system will buckle under the strain it faces. Any number of events could be a trigger. I foresee a massive widespread default on 3rd world (emerging market) debt.
    2) I reckon Aussie economy will enter recession despite a change in Govt in Sept/Oct. Unemployment will jump significantly. Wages will fall.
    3) China will slow substantially and possibly stall.
    4) World population will continue to soar until something traumatic happens. The world cannot support an extra 85 million extra people each year. Mass starvation, civil war/rioting, disease, and more is (unfortunately) almost certain to occur in my estimation. Worldwide refugee numbers will soar.
    5) Most commodity prices will continue to fall. BIG exception is food esp grains where i expect prices to rise substantially.
    6) ASX will finish lower at end FY14 than end of FY13.

    A pretty pessimistic outlook i concede and hope i'm wrong esp re category 4. In summary i feel it will be a tough year in which to make money and i can't foresee the ASX index leaping as it did in last 9 months of 2009 after capitulating.
    What are other readers forecasting?
 
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