FY14 EPS at least 19 cents

see numbers breakdown below...

FY14 EPS should be at least 19 cents and probably above 20 cents.

The 2H12 dividend should be 5 or 6 cents.

i.e. using 55%-60% payout ratio.

Gearing around 32.3%
and
Stat Net Debt around $1,825m

Assumes Steel EBITDA 2H only $10m.

Almost nothing else is unknown now.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0		1H14	2H14	FY14
1	CFR 62%	134	111	123
2	AUD	0.922	0.915	0.918
3	CFR AUD	145	122	133
4	Tonnes	6.32	6.19	12.51
5	Grade	95.7%	87.0%	90.6%
6	Sold @	139	107	121
7	COGS	72	69
8	Profit / t	67	38
9	EBITDA Iron Ore	423	233	656
10	Mining Cons	100	84	184
11	Steel	30	10	40
12	Recycling	3	5	8
13	Discountinued	45	15	60
14	Head Office	8	8	16
15	EBITDA total	503	309	812
16	DA
17	Iron Ore	99	99	198
18	Mining Cons	24	24	48
19	Steel	51	51	102
20	Recycling	5	5	10
21	Other	2	2	4
22	DA	181	181	362
23
24	EBIT	322	128	450
25	Interest	62	54	116
26	PBT	260	74	334
27	Tax Rate	23%	15%	21%
28	Tax	59	11	70
29	NPAT	201	63	264
30	Shares Start	1,355	1,361	1,361
31	Shares End	1,361	1,366	1,366
32	Accounting EPS	14.8	4.6	19.3

The writer implies no investment recommendation. This report contains material speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice. The writer owns shares in Arrium.
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