FY14 EPS should be at least 19 cents and probably above 20 cents.
The 2H12 dividend should be 5 or 6 cents.
i.e. using 55%-60% payout ratio.
Gearing around 32.3%
and
Stat Net Debt around $1,825m
Assumes Steel EBITDA 2H only $10m.
Almost nothing else is unknown now.
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
0
1H14
2H14
FY14
1
CFR 62%
134
111
123
2
AUD
0.922
0.915
0.918
3
CFR AUD
145
122
133
4
Tonnes
6.32
6.19
12.51
5
Grade
95.7%
87.0%
90.6%
6
Sold @
139
107
121
7
COGS
72
69
8
Profit / t
67
38
9
EBITDA Iron Ore
423
233
656
10
Mining Cons
100
84
184
11
Steel
30
10
40
12
Recycling
3
5
8
13
Discountinued
45
15
60
14
Head Office
8
8
16
15
EBITDA total
503
309
812
16
DA
17
Iron Ore
99
99
198
18
Mining Cons
24
24
48
19
Steel
51
51
102
20
Recycling
5
5
10
21
Other
2
2
4
22
DA
181
181
362
23
24
EBIT
322
128
450
25
Interest
62
54
116
26
PBT
260
74
334
27
Tax Rate
23%
15%
21%
28
Tax
59
11
70
29
NPAT
201
63
264
30
Shares Start
1,355
1,361
1,361
31
Shares End
1,361
1,366
1,366
32
Accounting EPS
14.8
4.6
19.3
The writer implies no investment recommendation. This report contains material speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice. The writer owns shares in Arrium.
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ARI Price at posting:
75.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held