FY17 Estimates Anyone ?

Analyst revenue estimates for FY17 are presently in the range of $437M to $575M.

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/revisions/

--> If you are in the camp whereby you expect A2M to take on a second infant formula manufacturer in a meaningful time frame, then you are probably at the high end of that range.

--> If you are in the camp whereby you don’t expect the A2M board to approve any further grey market risk and thus not take on a second infant formula provider for the coming year, then you are probably at the lower end of that range. And, it seems late now for A2M to mobilise a second IF supplier for FY17.

It would be generous I think to suggest that A2M could get much more than 10% growth out of the remaining headroom capacity at the Synlait Dunsandel facility for the FY17 year.

I think A2M will probably fall short of guidance in the US also actually, they got behind schedule, and it would be difficult to have made that back, schedules rarely recover or come forward again.

The Australian fresh milk market share has been flat for 18 months and we may see a down tick this time due to a higher retail price point spread between home brand and premium brand milks, as a result of GDT pressures.

I personally don’t think the Chinese regulatory risk will effect revenues significantly, to some degree obviously, but it won’t crush the company like some seem to think.

Its financial years end and analysts will be updating and re-forecasting, I’m anticipating some downgrades actually over the next few weeks once the numbers are crunched, more likely down than up this time folks.

The long run future is bright for A2M though I reckon, good management and tailwinds, a first mover advantage in most markets, even if the key patents have fallen away, but the FY17 year may be a little softer than many are presently pricing in for now in my opinion.
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