FY18 result - North of 40 cents seems reasonable, page-11

Amazing how you’re willing to so easily ignore nearly one third of its entire operating life! Literally One Third (i.e. nearly 5 years) ...and brush it away with caveats like well times were good here and times were poor here..... I guess you could make the exact same argument about any time it was at 3-4x EBITDA as well. Heck, why even use earnings multiples at all!!!

The optionality created by BOL’s de-gearing, positive earnings momentum and distressed and fragmented industry generates significant potential for BOL to add value via acquisitions and/or a buyback. Disregarding alternative views on the appropriate multiple (other than that 4x is clearly wrong), static multiple analysis really doesn’t capture this optionality at all. In effect, BOL should trade on a much higher multiple because its balance sheet has so much flexibility....and at the same time as many competitors in the industry remain on their knees. Remember the industry downturn was exceptionally deep and long duration (c. 7 years). Acquisitions during current times create reinforcing feedback loops which compress BOL’s WACC while expanding its ROIC, increasing the ROIC WACC spread and justifying a large NTA premium. This is why many of these capital intensive companies trade at multiples of NTA while they operate with strong earnings momentum and have de-risked their financial position. The same is likely to occur given BOL has the potential to acquire a number of companies who are highly distressed at the moment and struggling with the working capital requirements of increased demand.

To your point about the hatred many insto investors possess towards BOL..... That is the opportunity!! There are so many potential incremental purchasers. The market struggles with company's which operate in industries where there are very long cycles.... As it doesn't fit their quarterly investing focus.

Sell BOL when everyone is a fan, not when everyone still hates it.