FY19 $1.25 target

My simple forecast valuation on AHZ in 5 years’ time (2019) is $1.25
For FY 19 - I forecast annual gross revenues of $47m for CHD operations alone.
Pelvic & Hernia revenues could be $28m at that point ( I assume these start in 2016 at a combined rate of 1.5x the CHD market sales numbers).
Medical product sales business I forecast at $11m.
This gives a combined gross revenue of $86m, net of tax = $60m.
These are not pie in the sky numbers. Gross sales price = US$1,500, less COGS of $200 = net Sales revenue per patch of USD1,300
Some facts to project revenues from:

• Annually there are 500k cardio procedures in the US alone
• There are 60-80 centres in each of AHZ’s targeted regions – US, Europe and Rest of the World
• Each procedure requires an average of 2.4 patches per CHD (Cardio) operation

Let’s assume that AHZ can capture just 5% of the 500k annual procedures in the US = 25,000 procedures.
Repeat this in each region and there is the potential for 75,000 procedures pa. globally.

I suggest this as a target achievable by 2021, and so in 2019 I suggest 36,000 patches annually for CHD making $47m gross, and $28m from hernia/ pelvic ops.

I very conservatively assume that just 1 patch is used in each procedure

On a 30x pe the net $60m revenue gives a Market Capitalisation of $1.8bn. (CSL is on a 25x pe and SRX is on 47x - so 30x seems conservative).
With 1,441,087,921 shares on issue this is $1.25 per share.
This excludes any valuation for the vaccine business which arguably could add $100-$200m to the valuation. If you compare it to the valuation of other listed dna vaccine stocks in the US, then this is being very conservative.
Looks like 15c is the new floor with solid support ahead of vaccine data release.
All open to interpretation!