I have been giving some thought to the likely amount of Profit...

I have been giving some thought to the likely amount of Profit Before Tax increase should operational performance continue unchanged until the end of June 2020. Although normally I would assume sales performance would get worse in the current coronavirus environment, the fact that it has not deteriorated to date during the very worst of the coronavirus infection rates in China, Australia and New Zealand gives me confidence that this performance might continue or further improve.

For the FY19 results, sales revenue for the 6 core brands grew at 13%. PBT grew at 17% whereas EPS grew at 33%. Now sales revenue for the 6 core brands is growing at 20% with "improved margins" due to "reduced discounting". This indicates to me that PBT for just these 6 core brands should grow at a higher rate than revenue growth, say 25%.

Net debt has fluctuated from $7.5M at June 19, to $19.6M at December 19, and likely to less than $14.7M (current value) by end June 20. Net interest payments may be a bit higher in FY20, but not enough to be a major factor.

Then there are additional profits from the following new businesses:

1. Kotia for the full FY20 (only 8 months in FY19);
2. Sugarbaby for the full FY20 (only 2 months in FY19);
3. Soulful for the 11 months of FY20 (commenced in July 19);
4. MCP's own e-commerce store;
5. Entering the sanitation and immunity industry ($9M of orders, for say 2 months of FY20, might make a small contribution in FY20, but a much larger contribution in FY21).

How much the five new businesses above add to FY20 PBT is hard to estimate, but I would be very surprised in PBT growth does not hit 30% this year (+25% from owned brands +7% from the new businesses -2% in interest expense). This is all my expectations only based on my analysis, and may be different from the actual results. I do like that MCP is obviously being very conservative with their outlook of +10%. IMO, a profit upgrade in late June or early July is highly likely. Two consecutive years of EPS growth of over 30% (if my predictions above eventuate) should be very well received by the market.