FY20 Results Preview/Discussion

A little rally today - I wonder if a precursor to next week's results release.

Goldman results preview below - with a bit of luck we hear something about the Moorebank sale and/or additional Moorebank customers. Also watching the distribution as a an indicator of the confidence/resilience in future business performance.

Key FY20 metrics (GSe):

• Consolidated EBIT: A$155mn (pcp A$182mn; VA consensus A$153mn).
• NPATA: A$103mn (pcp A$123mn)
• Final Dividend: A2.9¢ps, 100% franked (pcp A2.9¢ps, 100% franked).

Look out for...

• Earnings guidance unlikely: As per prior releases, we expect limited guidance, with any outlook to be mostly qualitative and directional.
• Operating businesses face Covid-19 challenges: We expect some negative ongoing impact on the operating businesses from broad impact of Covid-19 related shutdowns and subsequent slowdown in economic growth. That said, while agricultural production (and subsequent logistic channels) is likely to have been affected in FY20 by drought, recent rains may deliver a more positive outlook for FY21.
• Patrick strength to continue: While industry container volumes are presently weak, Patrick remains well-placed to benefit from any recovery given its: (i) its #1 market position and scale benefits; (ii) automation advantage; and (iii) incoming increases in infrastructure charges. Look out for any commentary regarding the future potential impact on shipping volumes.
• Moorebank update: Moorebank’s development is progressing well, with the completion of Qube’s cross-dock warehouse and its recently announced signing of Woolworths for its Regional and National DCs. We may see additional tenancy signings announced with this result. We expect Qube to provide an update on its review of the Moorebank warehouse ownership structure and possible timing.