NCM 0.00% $23.35 newcrest mining limited

fy2014 forecasts fundamantals, page-4

  1. 35 Posts.
    Interesting post Sydneyguy although as an investor I do not think you can ignore reserves or mine life in the calculation of valuation. According to Baker Steel Capital Management who have analysed numerous past and future gold projects there have been fairly consistent ratios we can use in valuing a gold mine.
    1. The Capital cost of a new gold mine is around 10% of its gold reserves
    2. Mining the gold costs around half that gold
    3. The ongoing capital requirement to keep that mine going costs about 5% of that gold
    4. Governments end up taking around 15% of the gold in taxes.
    The balance of 20% is usually left for the shareholders.
    I think we need to look at the long term here. Lets say NCM's reserves are worth around 350 Billion and say that sharholders who hold over life of mine only walk away with 5% of those reserves instead of the 20% in Baker steels analysis. Then that's worth around 17.5 Billion. Divide that by shares outstanding gives a valuation of $22.90. You cannot compare a low PE miner with low reserves and shorter life with a miner that has large reserves and long mine life. The higher PE that NCM carries takes into account the value of its considerable assets.
 
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