FY21 revenues - temporary increase?, page-9

I bought recently because I don't consider MCS expensive at the current share price if the covid hotel revenue were to drop off immediately.
An article in The West Australian on 6 February 2021 stated the combined value of security contracts across the 9 Perth quarantine hotels reached $91.9m. So if MCS has the work for 1 hotel, it makes sense if they made $13.8m on that in FY21, meaning the covid hotel is their largest customer.
The work from the quarantine hotel has been ongoing for the past year and a half, and any further revenue from this is free upside given how cheap the stock is trading at the moment.
If the covid hotel work lasts, the current market cap will likely be covered by cash within 3 years (aided by $1.125m of tax revenue losses which means their income tax bill will be very minor over this period).
Plus you get free upside optionality if MCS announces expansion to the east coast.
It's hard for me to give a solid case as to why gross profit margins would decline significantly further, given competition consists of mostly small players with even fewer economies of scale than MCS. I have factored in a slight decline in margins to be on the conservative side, but they could also revert back upwards (GP margin was 24% in FY16 and has slowly been declining to 18% in FY21).
The most recent quarter was not great, with operating cashflow slightly negative. But quarterly results are noisy and just 1 extra pay cycle or ramp-up costs for their new contracts could be the cause for this.
When analysing their contracts since FY15 I noticed quite low churn, and MCS is regularly able to win back their work in open tenders which reinforces their claim in being the leader in retail security in WA (where most of their revenue is derived).
Also the CEO seems to have an eye for value, given buybacks around 1c when MCS was trading cheaper. Given the recent buyback announcement, management must think MCS is undervalued still which makes sense - they probably think the covid hotel work won't cease any time soon.
These are the main reasons why I think the expected IRR for investing in MCS today is above 30% p.a, with low downside risk if WA's hotel quarantine policy changes for the worse in the near-term.
Thanks all for your comments so far, happy to discuss further and have my assumptions challenged.