If I can throw my hat in the ring, I've got revenue for the September quarter sitting around A$34m, assuming all new and existing concentrates were sold.
$2.4m for gold concentrates sold in early July (US$1.7m @ 0.694 exchange rate) $3.1m for unsold concentrates at 30 Jun 2020 (Zinc 586 DMT, Lead 232 DMT, Copper 506 DMT) $28.5m for Q1 FY21 concentrates (table at the bottom)
I'm expecting RVR's #1 or #2 best quarter for sales revenue and for it to go very close to its highest EBITDA (previously A$12.5m). Cash costs are unlikely to be as low as they were in Q3 FY19, but RVR also mined 7% more tonnes that quarter (106kt vs 99kt).
One thing in RVR's favour that I would not have properly accounted for (underestimated) is the % of sales revenue that copper now accounts for. I've used the same blanket rule of 85% payability for all metals, which has worked well in the past (after adjusting for % of concentrates sold each quarter), but RVR's revenue makeup has changed dramatically in the past 18 months.
The distribution of sales revenue in Q3 FY19 was: - Zinc 54% - Lead 22% - Copper 13% - Gold & silver 11%
In Q4 FY20 (last quarter) it was: - Zinc 37% - Lead 11% - Copper 33% - Gold & silver 19%
This is significant because zinc smelters only pay for ~85% of concentrates delivered, before treatment charges. Whereas copper smelters pay for ~96% of concentrates delivered and have much lower treatment charges (>60% lower in July 2020). Copper smelters also have slightly better recovery rates than zinc smelters (~98% vs ~96%).
NOTE: The estimated sales revenue for Q1 FY21 highlighted above does not include unsold concentrates held at 30 June 2020 or gold concentrates sold in early July.
