Just back from a trip away and a chance to look at the calendar. If Sunday is the cut off day, then the FY23 might end on July 2...so not much of a difference. The headwinds are gathering, unfortunately. The extra 50 basis points of interest in July with a possibility of an additional 25 basis points in August will steady a few people. But, on a positive note, FY23 should see us get full value from the national distribution centre and in recessionary times, costs savings are paramount. I just cannot believe the volatility in ADH. With a Beta of 3.824 it ranks almost as bad as Mosaic with a Beta of 5.113 and we all know what strife MOZ has been in. A Beta of 1 equals the volatility of the total Aussie marketplace. Then let's compare ADH with Hardly Normal (HVN) which has a Beta of 0.942. Yet, ADH has better metrics when compared to HVN.
HVN has had 3-year revenue CAGR of 11.37% - not bad – but ADH has had a 3yr CAGR of 16.66%. The all important 3-year EPS CAGR has them both squared away at 25% whilst ADH has a better ROE of 23.6% v HVN @ 20.7%.
My point: I am totally baffled at the volatility of ADH. Surely it should rank close to NCK @ 2.666 or SUL @ 1.904.
ADH Price at posting:
$2.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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