I'm predicting revenue of $15.5 million, suspect helped by a small increase in orders since the last sales update + some slight help from the AUD.
Profit to be approx 40% of revenue. With energy cost savings, slightly higher margin production going forward (increases in alusion % of sales + eco zinc) and economies of scale, incremental revenue should increase the overall profit margin percentage going forward. Suspect increase in revenue target for 2024 to $20m.
There are three potential blue sky moments, (1) a significant change to FDA rules/comms around mineral sunscreens, (2) material increases in alusion and (3) development of a new product/market (i.e ultra pure high grade aluminum) or could even be food supplements or zinc additive for decking oil, fish farm feed etc.
So for $100million what do shareholders get in 2024 - a business that's probably on track to make $10m EBITDA, debt free and with potential blue sky moments. And this is with a steady state growth of core products of 10-20% driven by an established and growing distributor network.
Given all the above, I'd say give Geoff a raise!
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