FY24 Forecast

I am unable to post to the previous thread for some reason so I've started a new one.

Patrick, I think what Pagedown is alluding to is that the reason for the buyback stopping is that some negotiations are still taking place and once these are announced, the buyback can resume. However we'll be entering a blackout period in a week, due to the end of FY so no buyback at least until September.

On other matters, my mind is now turning to FY24 results and I have done a significant amount of work regarding the valuation of the dermatology assets and what it means to NOPAT for the FY24. My summary of that, is that the 1HFY24 NOPAT result of $-70M will turn into a NOPAT of about $50M profit for the FY24. So what I am saying is that 2HFY24 will produce $120M NOPAT maybe more.

My reasoning is that MYX is carrying the dermatology assets at $45M (about 25 of that were added with purchase of Rhofade plus working capital). These assets had a recoverable value of $54M in FY23 when dermatology assets returned a -$23M in contributions in FY23 (the impairment for this period was -$60M). Well, during the 1HFY24 the recoverable value was increased to $163M when dermatology swung to a positive $18M in contributions, but there was no subsequent increase in carrying value which is still $45M.

Typically, the carrying values are reassessed at year end and given that dermatology will swing to at least $40M in positive contributions, I believe the previous impairment of $60M will be reversed and an additional $40M to $80M (total to 120-140M) will be added to the fair value calculations for these assets.

I hope that these results will move the dial in sentiment because it certainly swung the sentiment negatively when assets were negatively impaired for the last 7 years.