Thought i would start a thread to break down some back of envelop calculations for FY26 guidance
Lets assume normalised EBITDA for FY25 was $27m (based on $27m cashflow)
+ $15.1m EBITDA (WLA acquisition) + $6.9m EBITDA (WLA ATM fee increase by 2Rs (see note 1) + $2m EBITDA (Awarded 638 additional CBI ATMs ATMs - Oct 24) + $3.5m EBITDA (900 Union Bank ATMs Feb 25) + $13m EBITDA (2,293 State Bank of India (SBI) ATMs Feb 25)
=$67.5m EBITDA
Lets assume they dont manage to roll out all those new atms to benefit in full for FY26 Lets assume they get around 80% to 85% of the numbers above - FY26 would be around $55m EBITDA
And you can see that FY27 is clearly going to do over $70m EBITDA!!!!!
Note 1) If the RBI / NPCI increase the FT interchange fee by 2 Rs and the NFT interchange fee by 1 Rs the WLA FY26 forecast Revenue (A$54.5m), forecast EBITDA (A$15.1m), and forecast NPBT (A$10.1m) will all increase by approximately +A$6.9m ie the increase will drop directly to the bottom line - Company presentation nov 24
FND Price at posting:
$3.85 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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