FYI v A4N & Foster Stockbroking valuation

I have updated the comparison table between A4N & FYI using exchange rate A$/$US @ .75c - this will compare consistent project headline metrics as A4N's DFS dated March 2020 used .68c exchange rate.

This put simply is a world class Tier 1 project that will make it to production. The gap in market cap between FYI and A4N is simply nonsense and I expect it close very soon.
There would be many smarter cookies than me that have compared both DFS numbers and FYI's progress over the last 12 months and will want in. It's no wonder a couple of monster block trades went through on Thursday.

Note A4N have simply multiplied their HPA sell price ($25k) minus cash costs ($5,940) x 10,000 tpa to calculate their annual pre-tax cash flow of $191m. This is a sneaky headline grabber, as their ramp-up period is set at 2 years, whereas conservative FYI have provided an 'average' EBITDA which does take into account ramp-up to nameplate. If FYI applied the same calculations, annual EBITDA would increase from 'average' $186m to $197m!



A4N ramp-up










FOSTER RESEARCH COVERAGE
Foster initiated coverage last year and have assumed FYI will fully draw down on the GEM facility @ 20c (400m shares) and CR @ 20c for $71m (355m shares) for a total of 1,105B shares and a share price target of 68c = $751m market cap.

Let's assume FYI fully draw down the remaining GEM facility ($76.8m) @ 50c (153m shares)
CR @ 50c for $100m (200m shares) and remaining funding through debt financing.

Total shares on issue now 721m. If $751m market cap is still valuation (which is highly unlikely as operating cashflow has increased by 30%, EBITDA + 37%) then conservative "risked"
share price for next Fosters update will come in at over $1.04




All good fun and my valuation is just a guide. Some many variables that can determine Fosters next valuation update but we are heading in the right direction.