Your comment prompted me to wonder what are we likely to learn from the H1FY19 Announcements circa 20 February 2019. When I constructed a view for all of FY19, it would have been much more useful to guesstimate SP reaction between now and 30 February 2019 if I had separated it into a view of the two half year . This is because H1FY19 Announcements include a forecast for H2FY19, and for FY20. These are critical for FA based valuations.
Next time I spend a day at home because of the weather, or whatever, I'll consider constructing a view on the two half years of FY19. To that end, I would appreciate it if Pbawley, or others of his ilk who build bottom-up revenue estimates, to put forward the revenue picture for H1FY19 and H2FY19. Any opinin on NPAT margin would help develop an NPAT
I would be inclined to expect a $550M - $600M range, and NPAT of 5.5% for each half year to reach my forecast of $1,150M for FY19. Bottom-up information may suggest that H1 would be skewed to the lower end of that range, and H2 skewed to the top of the range.
If we can put forward a cogently argued support for a better set of NWH Revenue and NPAT metrics, we could venture a new target SP by 30 February 2019.
NWH Price at posting:
$2.07 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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