GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

G.S. says Fed to Raise rates 3q 2015, page-4

  1. 411 Posts.
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    There appears to be no doubt that the US ecomony is recovering with unemployment continuing to decline and apparant increase in economic activity. I am scratching my head as to why ? then I read that in the last 12 months business lending has increased by 10% and personal lending or credit has increased by 7% (Sorry don't have the link to this stat).
    Logically this suggests the so called recovery is purely based on debt/credt growth. Without real growth in the absence of new debt is a receipe for disaster. There is no free lunch !!! My guess is they cannot raise rates too much without the risk of sending the economy back into recession. The only way they can escape the debt is to inflate the debt away. No doubt there will be the offical line of pending interest rate rises coming closer and closer to try to tame the markets however when it is time to take action inflation will outstrip rates resulting in real negative interest rates for some time even if rates do rise say to 2-3%. If anybody is at odds to my logic always looking for a reason based on facts why I could be wrong !!!!
 
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