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MemeFx

5,528 Posts.

31

04/07/14

09:36

Post #: 13610259
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Originally posted by paddington bear ↑

Thank you Tylemahos and Toastman.

My frustration with the XJO is that there is very little looking forward – too much this is what has happened rather than trying to interpret from what HAS happened into what MAY happen. The market is forward looking – just like driving down a road. We don’t look through the rear vision mirror – we look through the front windscreen. The markets are like that – they are always trying to peep over the wall to see what is on the other side. For a couple of months I have been mentioning that there were signs in some of the miners – particularly the lower end – that they appeared to be forming reversal patterns that could lead to something substantial. Also that the XSR index looked to be forming a little head and shoulders bottom pattern. Not one person put forth their views on why this may or could be happening or even not happening. Of course it is all there for everyone to see now.

Likewise, I have now asked twice if anyone thought that the markets could be looking at inflation instead of the deflation of the past few years. Again not one person came back on whether this might or even might not be the case. This is why I commented that I felt as though I was having a conversation with myself.

The reason I like Cha’s analysis so much is because he is the only technical person who is looking out there into the future.

Yes viewing technical analysis in this way is fraught with risks and dangers but isn’t that what this game is all about. As I said above, the markets are always forward looking not backwards. Not interested in what has happened – only what will happen.

I’m about to go away for ten days so I will think about whether I want to spend so much time posting on a chat room.

Something important always happens when I am away from my office. Already I think there is a slight change from the bearishness of recent times. Some months ago someone questioned Martis on what it would take for him to turn bullish. I think he said for the Dow to pass 17000. So here we are. Martis has a brilliant record at tops – he was banned from Hot Copper for a couple of years – came back in various disguises but on each occasion got busted – but eventually he was allowed back in 2011. Very, very negative but miraculously turned extraordinarily bullish right at the top in 2011. I think it was only a couple of weeks before the market turned down. Then of course when the market did bottom in October of 2011, he was extremely rude about my upside projections. So I see him as a very valuable indicator. If a rise above 17000 was what was needed to turn him bullish, then this will be a more important indicator than all the charts posted on the XJO.

Maybe I don’t have the right sort of attitude for a place like this because to me it has always been the challenge of the market. Perhaps my time would be better spent just concentrating on my own trading.

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Hey PB

Forward looking Vs Analysis.

I think the conundrum faced is that prediction requires analysis, but analysis doesn't guarantee prediction, and I think that the line gets blurred in peeps heads sometimes.

I don't know if you have ever read Mandelbrot's book - The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets. He explains that market action can be explained quite well by a multi-fractal model, but cannot be predicted by the same model.

Sigh. Whenever I post that somewhere, peeps comeback with some link to an EW website where they quote Mandelbrot out of context and claim that it is otherwise.

XJO Value at posting: 5,491.2
3 Upvote

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