Hi SA1588,
I thought that the harvests from here til 2021 were of similar size to each other, due to similar planting sizes c. 15 years ago.
Are you referring to the % of the harvest directly owned by TFC vs. third parties or is it something that I have missed?
In reference to the warrants, these were issued to the original investors in the Senior Note Issue. TFC have paid out the existing notes and refinanced them. The warrants, however, still exist and will be exercised in 2018 if the SP is >$1.28 which you'd assume.
The economic data out today should mean a lower AUD if it leads the RBA cuts interest rates further which some analysts (e.g. macrobusiness.com.au) are predicting. Good for TFC's non-cash profitability as their plantations increase in value and the 2017 investment proposition becomes more attractive to US based institutional investors.
Cheers
John
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