Hi John, Here's my attempt to chart it. You will notice that the...

Hi John,

Here's my attempt to chart it. You will notice that the wedge (black lines) is neither rising nor falling giving no indication of whether there is likely to be a break out up or down. RSI is fractionally into overbought territory, suggesting that short term there may need to be a bit of consolidation or pullback.

I'm trying to put myself into the mindset of the institutions who would have bought the warrants. If I were them, I would aim to short sell x/m warrants each month the SP is over the exercise price, where x is the number of warrants not yet covered by a short and m in the number of months till maturity. That would seem to give the best opportunity to lay off the risk inherent in long dated warrants whilst not unnecessarily depressing the SP of the stock which you hold warrants in. That seems to give a reasonable explanation of the graph of shorts over the last 3 years.

Cheers,
Tim.