I have seen some long term estimates for spod at around US$550 China, but would be inclined to agree with others that predicting even 18 months ahead is like throwing darts. Currently SMM is reporting SC6 pricing at around US$400 CIF China. The Aus Gov industry report released at end of June Qtr contained the following:
I personally estimate at least 1.5m tpa of idle built Spodumene Concentrate production capacity currently. The bulk of that includes Greenbushes CGP2 along with Wodgina. No doubt Wesfarmers will still be eager to get Earl Grey built when there are signs that demand is outpacing the current glut of supply. I have been watching pricing reports from various agencies and am yet to see signs of an uptick, but consider pricing at US$400 CIF DMT China to be unsustainable. Patience will be required.
