GXY 0.00% $5.28 galaxy resources limited

My take from the GXY Agm was they are looking for a Chinese...

  1. 3,463 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3013
    My take from the GXY Agm was they are looking for a Chinese converter capable of converting their total WA spodumene output. Spod Output is expected to be at 35ktpa LCE.

    A merger with A40 in 12-18 months could require a converter with capacity in excess of 35ktpa LCE. The AFR reported 40% stake in a 25ktpa LCE for $50-$60m being nothing more than an indication of going rates IMHO. (AFR reporter asks something like: Can you give me an indication of the costs involved in purchasing a Chinese converter?)

    GXY indicated they want conversion capacity of 100ktpa LCE battery grade chemicals... James Bay 39.9ktpa, SDV 25ktpa leaves 35ktpa in China.
    Options are to build alone, build with a partner, or acquire existing.

    My limited research - given its China - suggests they may build a new plant with a partner. Reason being, many existing converters are having QC struggles and cannot produce Battery Grade LCE - market is flooded with low industrial grade Lithium chemicals.

    Building a new plant allows them to design a state of the art facility to process the right grades sourced from >6% spod. Personally I would advise they have a minority partner with significant local converter expertise. GXY has the cash to build and fund the initial lower margin production and quality ramp up. No sense buying a dog of a converter on the cheap. Can be notoriously difficult to turn around a chemical conversion facility that can't achieve the grade.

    A GXY Chinese conversion facility will have a competitive advantage to its local counterparts. Guaranteed access to high grade Australian Spodumene with low impurities (Yes even Mt Cattlin spodumene is considered an excellent source of Spodumene with May 2019 indications of an increase in grade from 5.92% in April 2019). Not subject to the costs of finance and working capital of their small to medium competitors (circa mid teens). Potential to export from China, negating the issue of obtaining US$ backed credit to obtain spodumene.

    Im unsure if other posters have commented on this, but a brief note on the importance of Australian spodumene for Chinese converters. In 2018 China's Brine based LCE accounted for <30kt LCE of a total domestic consumption of 140ktpa LCE and for the most part was unusable for BG chemicals. Chinese brine has a magnesium to lithium ratio of up to 50:1; Bolivia up to 25:1; Chile 4-6:1 and Sal De Vida + much of Argentina 2-3:1. There are reports that South American brine is not making its way to China, leaving Australian spodumene the only option - accounting for >70% total consumption. The takeaway is when it comes to BG chemical lithium, the local Chinese brine resources are unacceptable.

    As GXY stressed, finance isn't the issue, it's a dearth of highly skilled manpower. GXY time frame for this was stated at 12-18 months. They are taking time to make a truly informed and considered investment.
    On a side note this coincides with the time frames given for their interest in A40 exploration results.

    A merger timed to reflect the likely exploration SP rise for A40 extended LOM and purchase of a GXY converter to handle up to 40ktpa LCE would make for a fair value script offer. Not to mention in 12 months GXY should have James Bay environmental approvals out of the way and start of construction. Further boosting GXY SP coupled with positive announcements during that period of initial construction of a Canadian 39.9ktpa LCE conversion plant - 40ktpa LCE regulatory limit.
    My research suggests that GXY will have an opportunity to participate in another CR for A40 in 6 months based on anticipated and published cash outflows which could increase GXY position to 25%-30% ownership of A40. There's also the matter of A40's restructuring of their expensive (LIBOR 13% not including entry / exit fees and other significant fee structures) $40m debt facility H1/2020. A40 also has an $11m liability from an offtake agreement pre payment. It currently has no further access to banking lines of credit. GXY may push to save A40 significant interest liabilities that are trapping A40 as a marginal producer albeit with WA's and possibly Australia's highest grade low impurity spodumene. A40 just need to get their costs down and will benefit from the experience GXY has to offer from its highly successful albeit delayed yet now implemented YOP.

    Script offer likely to follow but not a stretch to expect GXY with a 30% cash stake in 6 months. Clearly this is anything but a hostile takeover. Both teams are working together to maximize A40s assets and ROI for its investors. GXY is not looking to take advantage.

    GXY doesn't want to over commit until LOM at Bald Hill is 15 years minimum - of which they are confident - in order to feed the high margin chemical play. It gives me confidence in the BOD that they are not rushing to TO / Merge - they are looking for a proven LOM and a willing to wait rather than rolling the dice. GXY are not gambling here.

    Its a win win for both companies and you would have to be naive to believe there isn't a beer stained napkin from a WA local pub with a couple of signatures.
    As for a share buy back, it was discussed during the Agm but I didn't get the impression that it was anything more than a remote possibility. I'm completely dismissing it as a poor use of company funds.
    DYOR Not financial advice
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add GXY (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.