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number61

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57

07/01/17

16:57

Post #: 21741578
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Originally posted by airconditioner ↑

You really do need to do a bit more research.
I don't think you've done quite enough on Galaxy yet to be making these kind of guesses and your debt stuff is just not right.

We had guidance that SDV negotiations were commenced ages ago with interested parties
and when the cheque is actually signed is a little irrelevant, just that a specific agreement is in place at a price and future agreement so that things can move forward.
Cash reserves will start to build up in Q2 that can either go to wiping out debt, or starting to pay bills for SDV.
There would be nothing stopping GXY from starting and funding the build operation early stages by themselves. GXY don't walk into negotiations as junior as LAC was with SQM.
There is real income coming down the line and know-how with chemical plant building with Galaxy.
(see Jiangsu. GXY built the biggest and most advanced carbonate processing plant in China in its day).

Scalable test plant is only $30m. A few months of Mt Cattlin profit covers that. Easy when the company begins making $12.4-$15.6m a month profit (yes - after costs) from Q2 onwards with Contract 2's $905USD/t.

The $220m loss is paid off debt from the post-GFC horror years.
The sale of Jiangsu wiped it in 2015.
We can now use this loss against the next $220m profit. Handy.

Give a bit of credit to the skills of management (and their accounting) here.
They were down to $50k and about to hit the wall and AT seemed to still be able to still deal with Tianqi from a position of strength, arguably getting an inflated price for Jiangsu when Tianqi could have just bought us out for less. And the $13m start up costs for Mt Cattlin were found with a GMM JV. That was as good a result as you could have got from a company that has $50k and a share price of 2c.
Cost us later with the merge, but we wouldn't be standing here without it.
Any junior lithium miner would give their right arm for Anthony Tse's negotiation skills.

You think we can't find finance when we're a $1b company and looking forward to nameplate $200m annual profit from Mt Cattlin given the likelihood that contract prices continue to stay high. Ok. That's your opinion. Are you sure you're a banker though?

Going it alone actually never looked so good - but the key is that Galaxy is actually wanting to build James Bay. I think this is why the jv is on the table for SDV. It's so that 2018 sees Galaxy start building JB with cash.

Piacentini were contracted and are blasting again.
There was 230kt of blasted material on the pad a while back.
The generous 10:1 estimate is that should cover shipment 2 as well and give plenty of time to Piacentini to add to further stock. This is a specifically timed operation. They made the call to halt blasting earlier in the year and recommence again only once it was required. The fact that they're blasting already tells me that the second shipment is coming along nicely.

GXY could do a dividend this year. Easy.
It would be a live option. A 1c thank you note or Christmas bonus for $18m is not much of what they are set to make (in excess of $100m profit). Some would like that gesture - others would be happy to have it ploughed into our next 2 assets. I don't mind either way.

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Never said you wouldn't get finance. My point is, GXY will need more of it than I think is anticipate. Or the shareholders will fund the gap. That's my view, it's not yours. That's ok. You don't need to be condensending in you posts - you are the spiritual leader here and will set the tone of following posts.

The two questions I asked are important to understand, imo.

There are assumptions made here that everything will be fine because of the $905pt.

GXY Price at posting: 56.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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