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Shades, I think your posting is intuitive and well researched...

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Skorzeny

372 Posts.

23/08/16

22:59

Post #: 18625569
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Originally posted by shades2 ↑

I question the article, as he is actually too conservative in some places, but has costed in things we've discussed in others. You should understand though that this share is mainly de-risked now, any risks that arrive come from any future decision making. This will become evident as the cash-flow situation improves with millions soon to arrive on first shipment.

Trying to paint GXY as highly risky is disingenuous at best. Just because you don't understand it, doesn't make it actually risky. (But I would advise people not to invest in things they don't have a full understanding of). And I will quote you directly here: " It seems wildly low to me for a highly risky stock."

We are not an XPE or IOT or XTV, we actually produce something of value. Many of those "most discussed" stock forums are full of blatant pumpers, and people wailing about losing their money in the stock market. One or two may survive, who knows.. but people just by the hype, and others encourage them to, to profit from their stupidity. You will not find that here with our long-term investors.

I'm not an expert in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculations. I have my own figures I work with. One of them is a fairly simple equation with a share multiplier value which represents the holding stock for a 10 year period to determine a share price. I'm comfortable with the real profitability in real terms - costs, divided by the number of shares on issue, and multiplied by that figure, to arrive at an estimated future SP and therefore market cap.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp

"Discounted cash flow models are powerful, but they are only as good as their imports. As the axiom goes, "garbage in, garbage out". Small changes in inputs can result in large changes in the estimated value of a company, and every assumption has the potential to erode the estimate's accuracy."

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Shades,
I think your posting is intuitive and well researched but... I don't think Mt. Caitlin and a DFS on SDV mainly de-risks a company worth over 700 million dollars just yet. Without a clear direction on how GXY plans to proceed with either, the (significant) expansion of Mt Cait, or the financed development of SDV (or JB of course) there is still a huge speculative element in the current valuation of GXY.
I'm a believer in GXY but I don't think mainly/almost de-risked is a way I would refer to my investment here....... Yet.
Respectfully
Skorz

Last edited by Skorzeny: 23/08/16

GXY Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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