According to Roskill, growth in demand for lithium will be driven by the lithium-ion battery sector, with demand for lithium in lithium-ion batteries forecast to increase in the base case from approximately 21,000 tonnes LCE in 2008 to approximately 41,100 tonnes LCE by 2013, representing a compound annual growth rate of 14.4%. Roskill expects this growth to be split between: � demand for lithium in for rechargeable batteries for portable and stationary applications (e.g. laptops and mobile phones), which is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 6.9% between 2008 and 2013 to approximately 27,200 tonnes LCE; and � demand for lithium in rechargeable batteries for transport applications such as Electric Powered Vehicles, which is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 55.7% between 2008 and 2013 to 13,900 tonnes LCE. The latter forecast is motivated by the recent commencement by major automotive manufacturers of the mass production of EVs, HEVs and PHEVs using lithium-ion batteries, and assumes the production of over 600,000 such vehicles globally per annum by 2013. This compares with production of approximately 350,000 of these vehicles in 2007, the majority of which have historically been fitted with nickel-metal hydride batteries. Roskill also notes that other transport markets for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, including E-bikes, are showing strong growth in demand due to the replacement of nickel-metal hydride and nickel-cadmium batteries in these applications, especially in the PRC.
GXY Price at posting:
45.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held