Hi
@balt
Check the link. I know its a roughie but the figures I'm using are from the page.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FMG.AX
P/E ratio for FMG is 41.12
Perhaps the data is a little out of date? - I'm not a FMG investor to check the fine details.
Must be pretty close though..?
I'm calculating GXY profit and removing costs.
Yesterday's announcements said they had reduced processing cost with efficiency.
My new estimate for cost/t is approx $200 - down from $260 - to bring it into line with what others are forecasting. I think Anthony Tse was again being conservative when he used the $260 figure in April. We will get guidance on new operating costs soon.
We're forecast to produce 160kt-240kt. I'm splitting the difference at 200kt.
$750USD/t is used as a figure in the recent Galaxy presentation. I think we can reasonably estimate that this is the figure that GXY are wanting for second shipment. It was mentioned as a target as far back as March at the Swiss Institute.
200kt x $750 USD = $200m AUD. take $50m for costs.
= $150m profit for Mt Cattlin.
At 240kt it's more like $180m.
These are estimates of costs but they'd be in the ballpark.
There is also potential further upside to spodumene pricing next year.
2017 is the real supply gap year. Only Ganfeng enters with a new hard rock mine and they are supplying their own operations. We should get a wide open field to exploit without competitors.
Perhaps Nemaska can get themselves moving - but other than that - Galaxy is the one they will be turning to.
If we pursue the spot market with our remaining supply after satisfying the 2 x 60kt contracts then we could be looking at much higher prices by selling in smaller consignments.
Q4 this year we should also get paid in advance for the 120kt shipment.
Assuming $750USD/t - we should pick up a cheque for $60m AUD.
The first shipment in September will pay off all debt and leave approx $5m AUD.
Plenty of capital coming in this year to get the SDV build started.
