galoc estimates compared to peers

Lets just do a few what ifs on Galoc alone...

On page 10 of the 17th May presentation the Nido share of Galoc estimated Annual Production Rates were...

Year 1 - 1.4 million barrels
Year 2 - 1.4 million barrels
Year 3 - 1.1 million barrels
Year 4 - 0.8 million barrels
Year 5 - 0.7 million barrels

Take Year 1 (say 2008)...

at $US60 for a barrel of oil and exchange rate of 75 cents to US dollar this gives revenues of $A112 million.

Now lets look at pre tax profits...

Average pre tax operating margins of producing peers is just over 40% - so lets say Nido acheive 30% at Galoc as an assumption?

This gives pre tax profit of $A33.6 million.

So we have in 2008 ...

Revenues of $112 million
Pre Tax Profits of $33.6 million

Now then - lets look at the Current Producing Peers in this sector in their last annual report that have...

1. Revenues of greater than $45 million (less than half that of NDO estimate) OR
2. Pre Tax Profits greater than $15 million (less than half that of NDO estimate)

Lets produce 2 lists of peers - first the revenues and market caps and second the Pre Tax Profit and market caps


1 Peers with Revenues of greater than $45 million
------------------------------------------------

in descending Revenue order...

Code Revenue Mkt Cap. (mil)
WPL $2,883,239,000 26,800
STO $2,580,600,000 6,745
OSH $911,347,962 4,165
TAP $121,397,000 294
ARQ $105,715,000 347
ROC $66,013,000 854
BPT $63,249,000 855
PSA $48,591,422 376

1 Pre Tax Profits greater than $15 million
------------------------------------------------

in descending Pre Tax Profits order...

Code Net Profit Before Tax Mkt Cap. (mil)
WPL $1,422,527,000 26,800
STO $1,010,500,000 6,745
OSH $578,882,377 4,165
ARQ $58,214,000 347
TAP $35,261,000 294
BPT $28,436,000 855
PSA $18,721,000 376
AMU $16,837,000 202


Now slot NDO estimates for 2008 in Revenues and Pre Tax Profits into the above 2 lists, look at the current (undiluted for options) market caps of these peers and maybe, just maybe NDO might not be that expensive after all? Maybe cheap?

Now - of course - this assumes some things for Galoc - but what if they acheived 60% only flow rates or West Linapacan was developed (I admit more capital required), or what other assets might they buy an interest in with Galoc cash - and in other parts of the world?

Anyway - just another way to look at it - we can then look at it from the market caps of non producing (or very little) peers - and include HDR, AWE and ROC where the market caps are looking forward - just like the NDO market cap?

I can't see an oiler with revenues in the NDO ballpark with a cap much under $300 million in that list above - same applies to Net Profit Before Tax.

Might be a simplistic way to look at it - but these numbers are facts.