I'm trying to figure what the average production rate was for the operation not the wells themselves. I'm ok with the fact that the wells have the capacity to flow more and that the FPSO can take more, however I'm assuming that neither the wells nor the vessel can flow 24/7/365 at maximum capacity. I'm trying to get a handle on what the actual production rate is in order to understand what the resulting cash flow will be. With that in mind I offer the following:
OEL reported that 185Mbbl was in the tank yesterday.
NDO announced that first oil was 9 Oct. I make that 20 days up to midnight 28 Oct. 185/20 = 9.25 Mbopd. If they had been producing 15 Mbopd they would have 300 Mbbl.
Nine days of production from 29 Oct at 15 Mbopd give us 135 Mbbl for a total of 320 Mbbl. Divide that by the 30 days since first oil and I get 10.7 Mbopd.
I do expect the average rate to increase from this point on. I do not expect it will get any lower.
Forecasting from here assuming a starting volume of 20 Mbbl and the next sale at no more than 400 Mbbl in the tank I calculate the next offtake on:
1 Dec assuming 15 Mbopd 27 Nov assuming 18 Mbopd 25 Nov assuming 20 Mbopd
Assuming of course that production does not stop.
I'd be very pleased to see production operating 80% of the time in the next few months. Given 18 Mbopd capacity, that would average out to 14.4 Mbopd. This average would produce 450 Mbbl/month or 100 Mbbl/month net to Nido. I'd hazard a guess that operating expenses are $100k/d or $690k/mth to Nido and also assume that the government gets nothing for the first six months.
Revenue @ $65/bbl = $6.5 million per month OPEX @ 100k/d = $0.69 million per month Net to Nido $5.8 million per month or A$ 8.9/month
Not a bad little earner using conservative assumptions.
Please let me know if yo spot something wrong.
Regards,
opt
NDO Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
