SSN samson oil & gas limited

is tomorrow - Fri 5th June starting 9:30am - Vienna time...

  1. 11,280 Posts.
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    is tomorrow - Fri 5th June starting 9:30am - Vienna time (roughly 6 1/2 hrs time)

    You can even watch the game live
    http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
    (rather have a root canal myself)

    What outcomes do we think are likely:

    1. "Mission Accomplished" declares OPEC and promptly announces a production cut of 1Mmbopd
    (IMO - Unlikely <10% COS)

    2. "Bury the Frackers" declares OPEC and promptly announces a production increase of 1Mmbopd
    (IMO - Unlikely <10% COS)

    3. "Frack On/Frack Off" (like in Wax) - OPEC says no agenda, just maintaining market share and Production Quota remains at 30Mmbopd.
    (IMO - highly likely)

    But wait, that 30Mmbopd quota is kind of "soft" - OPEC has been producing above that now for some time and sometimes as high as 31.2 Mmbopd (April).

    Also Iraq's production apparently does not count to OPEC quota (making up for "lost production" allowances from the war years I guess). Don't quote exactly but 2014 avg around 3.3 - 3.4 Mmbopd mark and 2015 already is around the 3.6 - 3.7 Mmbopd mark (ISIS notwithstanding).

    And then of course Iran and sanctions and what effect that brings to supply. Don't know what their current quota is?

    I guess we'll soon know...
 
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